Emerging countries tend to default when their economic conditions worsen. If harsh economic conditions in an emerging country correspond to similar conditions for the U.S. investor, then foreign sovereign bonds are particularly risky. We explore how this mechanism impacts the data and influences a model of optimal borrowing and default. Empirically, the higher the correlation between past foreign bond and U.S. market returns, the higher the average sovereign excess returns. The market price of sovereign risk appears in line with its corporate counterpart. In the model, sovereign defaults and bond prices depend not only on the borrowers' economic conditions, but also on the lenders' time-varying risk aversion.

Sovereign Risk Premia / Borri, Nicola; A., Verdelhan. - (2011).

Sovereign Risk Premia

BORRI, NICOLA;
2011

Abstract

Emerging countries tend to default when their economic conditions worsen. If harsh economic conditions in an emerging country correspond to similar conditions for the U.S. investor, then foreign sovereign bonds are particularly risky. We explore how this mechanism impacts the data and influences a model of optimal borrowing and default. Empirically, the higher the correlation between past foreign bond and U.S. market returns, the higher the average sovereign excess returns. The market price of sovereign risk appears in line with its corporate counterpart. In the model, sovereign defaults and bond prices depend not only on the borrowers' economic conditions, but also on the lenders' time-varying risk aversion.
Sovereign risk; default risk; emerging markets
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11385/5542
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