We apply the gravity model to Turkey’s trade flows over 1967-2001. First, we check whether this model fits Turkey’s geographical pattern of trade in goods. Second, provided that the model works, we assess whether Turkey already has a “special” trade relation with the EU, namely whether merchandise exchanges between the two parties exceed what the gravity approach predicts. The main findings are: i) the gravity model provides a good fit of Turkey’s trade patterns; and ii) despite the 1963 Association agreement, and the customs union launched in 1996, there is no evidence of additional trade between Turkey and the EU.
Has Turkey a “Special” Trade Relation With the EU? A Gravity-Model Approach / D., Antonucci; Manzocchi, Stefano. - In: ECONOMIC SYSTEMS. - ISSN 0939-3625. - 30:(2006), pp. 157-168.
Has Turkey a “Special” Trade Relation With the EU? A Gravity-Model Approach
MANZOCCHI, STEFANO
2006
Abstract
We apply the gravity model to Turkey’s trade flows over 1967-2001. First, we check whether this model fits Turkey’s geographical pattern of trade in goods. Second, provided that the model works, we assess whether Turkey already has a “special” trade relation with the EU, namely whether merchandise exchanges between the two parties exceed what the gravity approach predicts. The main findings are: i) the gravity model provides a good fit of Turkey’s trade patterns; and ii) despite the 1963 Association agreement, and the customs union launched in 1996, there is no evidence of additional trade between Turkey and the EU.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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