We investigate whether teams exhibit increased or reduced overreaction in expectation formation relative to individuals. Using preregistered randomized experiments that directly elicit expectations about future returns, we find that teams display lower belief overreaction to recent investment performance. A quantitative decomposition shows that this team effect stems primarily from a “self-selection” mechanism, whereby the most biased team member chooses to influence the team decision less. An LLM-based analysis of team interactions reinforces this result. A complementary analysis of US equity mutual fund managers operating both individually and as part of a team yields consistent evidence of lower overreaction in teams.

Barahona, Ricardo; Cassella, Stefano; Jansen, Kristy A. E.; Pezone, Vincenzo. (2026). Do teams alleviate or exacerbate overreaction in beliefs?. JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS, (ISSN: 0304-405X), 176:February, 1-17. Doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104219.

Do teams alleviate or exacerbate overreaction in beliefs?

Vincenzo Pezone
2026

Abstract

We investigate whether teams exhibit increased or reduced overreaction in expectation formation relative to individuals. Using preregistered randomized experiments that directly elicit expectations about future returns, we find that teams display lower belief overreaction to recent investment performance. A quantitative decomposition shows that this team effect stems primarily from a “self-selection” mechanism, whereby the most biased team member chooses to influence the team decision less. An LLM-based analysis of team interactions reinforces this result. A complementary analysis of US equity mutual fund managers operating both individually and as part of a team yields consistent evidence of lower overreaction in teams.
2026
Behavioral finance
Expectation formation
Extrapolation
Lab experiment
Overreaction
Performance
Teams
Barahona, Ricardo; Cassella, Stefano; Jansen, Kristy A. E.; Pezone, Vincenzo. (2026). Do teams alleviate or exacerbate overreaction in beliefs?. JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS, (ISSN: 0304-405X), 176:February, 1-17. Doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104219.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11385/258818
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