Stay or go? Exogenous shocks and SMEs' export market portfolios

How do small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) respond to multiple exogenous shocks in export markets? Drawing on real options theory (ROT), we analyze a unique data set of 2975 French SMEs over the period 2015–2020. We show that, when facing low‐intensity shocks, SMEs expand the breadth of their export market portfolio, thereby enhancing switching options across regions. As shock intensity increases, they reduce the breadth while sharply increasing the depth of their export market portfolio, thereby strengthening growth options within their home region. Moreover, SMEs react more strongly to natural shocks (natural and climatic disasters, epidemics) than to human‐induced shocks (armed conflicts, terrorist attacks, and industrial disasters). We advance our understanding of SME internationalization under uncertainty and contribute to embedding ROT into international business research.