Can a civilization know its own institutional decline? A tale of indicators

This chapter asks if current indicators of low trust and moral decay in Europe can be better traced to facts than similar perceptions on record from the Western Roman Empire during its decline. The answer is provided by complementing individual-level analysis of corruption survey data with national-level data, using three novel fact-based indicators. The findings provide a general validation of public perception by more objective indicators. Most individuals seem to report what they observe and experience, uninfluenced by media or social status, so these negative perceptions are likely to reflect the overall practices that people observe as well as the integrity policy framework. The chapter argues that public perception does not need direct evidence to have objective evidence, and indirect indicators offer sufficient grounds for the perception of corruption and decaying standards. Nevertheless, the chapter also shows that objectivity is uneven across respondents of a survey.