Inside the Europeanization black box: the evolution of corruption risk in Albania’s public procurement

The Western Balkans EU candidate countries face rule of law challenges far more serious than Hungary or Poland did at the time of their accessions in 2004. Despite extensive EU conditionality and support, with 16% of EU pre-structural funds dedicated between 2014 and 2020 to rule of law projects, governance indicators show no substantial change. The European Court of Auditors (ECA) also found little impact in advancing the rule of law in the candidate countries in the Western Balkans. The European Commission, however, does report signs of progress. By drawing on public procurement data from the two sectors concentrating most public expenditure, namely health and construction, between the years 2017 and 2019, this paper solves the dilemma of how allegedly successful reforms can happen without much impact. By directly measuring government favouritism in procurement, before and after EU-driven reforms, the paper finds that evolution has so far been limited despite proving the effect of certain interventions. The paradox is explained by providing evidence of versatile behaviour by the main rent owners and the increasing discretionary power of Albania’s governing party.