This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeco-nomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we show that the macroeconomic effect of epidemics reflects the socio-economic features characterizing different eras. A mapping between past epidemic scenarios and the COVID-19-induced environment can thus lead to misleading outcomes. We believe our evidence to be of general interest and key for policymakers forced to implement rapid and effective policies.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea! / Donadelli, Michael; Ferranna, L.; Gufler, Ivan; Paradiso, A.. - In: STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS. - ISSN 0954-349X. - 57:(2021), pp. 214-224. [10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002]

Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!

Donadelli, M.
;
Gufler, I.;
2021

Abstract

This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeco-nomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we show that the macroeconomic effect of epidemics reflects the socio-economic features characterizing different eras. A mapping between past epidemic scenarios and the COVID-19-induced environment can thus lead to misleading outcomes. We believe our evidence to be of general interest and key for policymakers forced to implement rapid and effective policies.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Epidemics, capitalism phases, macroeconomic scenarios, socio-economic characteristics
Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea! / Donadelli, Michael; Ferranna, L.; Gufler, Ivan; Paradiso, A.. - In: STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS. - ISSN 0954-349X. - 57:(2021), pp. 214-224. [10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11385/223882
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