A simple method to estimate firms' liquidity needs during the Covid-19 crisis with an application to Italy

We propose a simple method based on firms' balance sheets and sectoral predictions of sales growth to determine the firms that will become illiquid month by month as the Covid-19 crisis unfolds. We apply the method to the population of Italian incorporated businesses to the end of 2020. We find that at the peak, around 200,000 companies employing 3.3 million workers would become illiquid. The progression is fast, with 180,000 firms turning illiquid already by April. The liquidity shortage, defined as the "negative" liquidity stock of illiquid firms, amounts to 72 billion. We evaluate the Italian government liquidity decree, which provides guarantees for bank loans under four different facilities of increasing complexity. Assuming that firms have access to all the facilities, almost all firms are able to cover their liquidity shortfalls. The issue is the speed of implementation: the facilities supplying more liquidity are more complex to administrate, and many firms require these facilities to cover their liquidity shortfalls. Overall, we conclude that even in the case of a second wave after the summer, which would increase the liquidity shortfall substantially, firms' liquidity needs are manageable under the current schemes of liquidity provision.