In many developing countries, timely and accurate information about birth rates and other demographic indicators is still lacking, especially for male fertility rates. Using anonymous and aggregate data from Facebook's Advertising Platform, we produce global estimates of the Mean Age at Childbearing (MAC), a key indicator of fertility postponement. Our analysis indicates that fertility measures based on Facebook data are highly correlated with conventional indicators based on traditional data, for those countries for which we have statistics. For instance, the correlation of the MAC computed using Facebook and United Nations data is 0.47 (p = 4.02e-08) and 0.79 (p = 2.2e-15) for female and male respectively. Out of sample validation for a simple regression model indicates that the mean absolute percentage error is 2.3%. We use the linear model and Facebook data to produce estimates of the male MAC for countries for which we do not have data.

Mater certa est, pater numquam: What can Facebook Advertising Data Tell Us about Male Fertility Rates? / Rampazzo, Francesco; Zagheni, Emilio; Weber, Ingmar; Testa, Maria Rita; Billari, Francesco. - (2018).

Mater certa est, pater numquam: What can Facebook Advertising Data Tell Us about Male Fertility Rates?

Testa, Maria Rita;
2018

Abstract

In many developing countries, timely and accurate information about birth rates and other demographic indicators is still lacking, especially for male fertility rates. Using anonymous and aggregate data from Facebook's Advertising Platform, we produce global estimates of the Mean Age at Childbearing (MAC), a key indicator of fertility postponement. Our analysis indicates that fertility measures based on Facebook data are highly correlated with conventional indicators based on traditional data, for those countries for which we have statistics. For instance, the correlation of the MAC computed using Facebook and United Nations data is 0.47 (p = 4.02e-08) and 0.79 (p = 2.2e-15) for female and male respectively. Out of sample validation for a simple regression model indicates that the mean absolute percentage error is 2.3%. We use the linear model and Facebook data to produce estimates of the male MAC for countries for which we do not have data.
arXiv:1804.04632v1 [cs.CY] 12 Apr 2018
arXiv:1804.04632v1
Rampazzo, Francesco; Zagheni, Emilio; Weber, Ingmar; Testa, Maria Rita; Billari, Francesco
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
1804.04632 (1).pdf

Open Access

Tipologia: Versione dell'editore
Licenza: DRM non definito
Dimensione 328.17 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
328.17 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

Caricamento pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11385/198071
Citazioni
  • Scopus 11
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact