The two-child family ideal is no longer universally widespread in Europe, but the reasons why people prefer a given number of children have not yet been systematically investigated. In our study, we adopt a multilevel approach to examine the individual and regional factors of ideal family size by taking into account the similarities of people sharing the same unobservable demographic and socio-economic environment. Logistic regression models are implemented using Eurobarometer data on the preferences of respondents aged 20-39 embedded in the regions of the 15 member countries of the European Union in 2001. The main result is that the context of actual fertility of the older generations influences the preferences of the younger cohorts: in regions where the past actual childbearing is, on average, lower, we find that the individual probability of preferring smaller families of people in reproductive ages is higher.

The influence of childbearing regional contexts on ideal family size in Europe / Testa, M; Grilli, L. - In: POPULATION. - ISSN 1634-2941. - 61:(2006), pp. 109-138. [10.3917/popu.601.0107]

The influence of childbearing regional contexts on ideal family size in Europe

TESTA M
;
2006

Abstract

The two-child family ideal is no longer universally widespread in Europe, but the reasons why people prefer a given number of children have not yet been systematically investigated. In our study, we adopt a multilevel approach to examine the individual and regional factors of ideal family size by taking into account the similarities of people sharing the same unobservable demographic and socio-economic environment. Logistic regression models are implemented using Eurobarometer data on the preferences of respondents aged 20-39 embedded in the regions of the 15 member countries of the European Union in 2001. The main result is that the context of actual fertility of the older generations influences the preferences of the younger cohorts: in regions where the past actual childbearing is, on average, lower, we find that the individual probability of preferring smaller families of people in reproductive ages is higher.
Fertility; Fertility intentions; Eurobarometer; Multilevel analysis; Europe; Proportional odds model
Il est couramment admis que la connaissance des préférences des jeunes sur la taille idéale de la famille peut nous éclairer sur le niveau de la fécondité à venir. Dans le contexte de faible fécondité qui marque aujourd’hui l’Europe, Maria Rita Testa et Leonardo Grilli renversent ici la question. En exploitant les réponses à l’Eurobaromètre de 2001, ils montrent qu’à l’échelon des soixante-douze régions des quinze pays membres de l’Union européenne à cette date, il existe une forte association entre la taille idéale de la famille exprimée par les jeunes et les comportements de fécondité observés dans la génération qui les précède. S’agit-il d’un processus de transmission familiale ou d’un apprentissage social plus large? Ou encore, sommes-nous plutôt devant un effet contextuel durable traversant les générations, qui, après avoir influencé la fécondité des aînés, joue maintenant sur les préférences des jeunes? Comme les auteurs le reconnaissent eux-mêmes, les données utilisées ne permettent pas de répondre à ces questions. Mais leurs résultats constituent un apport significatif au domaine difficile de la diffusion des comportements de fécondité.
The influence of childbearing regional contexts on ideal family size in Europe / Testa, M; Grilli, L. - In: POPULATION. - ISSN 1634-2941. - 61:(2006), pp. 109-138. [10.3917/popu.601.0107]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11385/197849
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