We experimentally compare increasing “awareness” versus “nudging” to correctly deal with the, so called, Almost Winning bias (Reid 1986). After an Almost Win, AW, individuals should distinguish between situations where near-miss outcomes signal ability, and those where near-miss outcomes are unrelated to the future success chances, as in chance games. The relative effectiveness of the two interventions, aimed at reducing the AW bias, are compared in two different risky choice tasks (“ investment task” and “slot machine task”). Participants, facing a series of near miss-outcomes, showed an increasing willingness to continue playing irrespective of framing but, when informed about the independence of events (nudging) or about the actual winning probabilities (awareness) more correctly interpreted an AW and reacted to it less strongly, albeit nudging seeming less effective in both settings.

Framing and Nudging in Near-miss Events / Choirat, Christine; Di Cagno, Daniela Teresa; Galliera, Arianna. - In: SISTEMI INTELLIGENTI. - ISSN 1120-9550. - (In corso di stampa), pp. 1-32.

Framing and Nudging in Near-miss Events

Daniela Di Cagno;Arianna Galliera
In corso di stampa

Abstract

We experimentally compare increasing “awareness” versus “nudging” to correctly deal with the, so called, Almost Winning bias (Reid 1986). After an Almost Win, AW, individuals should distinguish between situations where near-miss outcomes signal ability, and those where near-miss outcomes are unrelated to the future success chances, as in chance games. The relative effectiveness of the two interventions, aimed at reducing the AW bias, are compared in two different risky choice tasks (“ investment task” and “slot machine task”). Participants, facing a series of near miss-outcomes, showed an increasing willingness to continue playing irrespective of framing but, when informed about the independence of events (nudging) or about the actual winning probabilities (awareness) more correctly interpreted an AW and reacted to it less strongly, albeit nudging seeming less effective in both settings.
experiment, gambling, decision making under risk and uncertainty, nudge
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11385/191803
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