Post-Western World Orders and East Asian Future

The paper investigates the main macro-political trends at the international level. After reviewing the conceptual maps of international politics and the various future scenarios for globalisation, the paper examines the three main world order arrangements that could emerge in the coming decades. These are derived from the current distribution of power at the international level and from current trends, and are extrapolated as possible future developments. These eventualities involve the four major powers in the world to come: China, the European Union, Russia, and the US. The international system will most likely pivot on the interaction between the declining hegemon, the US, and the emerging power, China. It is with reference to such interaction that we need to envisage possible future world orders. It is clear that the other remaining powers, not to mention other countries, will have to strategically adapt to the behaviour of these two superpowers. Many see the relative decline of the US and the growth of China as setting the two on a collision course. It is difficult to predict whether a real armed conflict will occur between the two superpowers. There are significant 188 balancing dynamics between the two countries; first and foremost is their economic interdependence. What can be affirmed more easily is that there will be a continuous, if not growing, tension between the two. As outcomes of this tension, three main scenarios of world order can be drawn. World Order One: The West vs. the Rest. In this scenario, tension remains a central feature, which polarises the world in a new bipolar system. The EU is pulled towards, and even more greatly integrated within, the transatlantic community, while Russia follows a similar trajectory within a Sino-centric Asian community. World Order Two: Eurasian Integration and US Solitude. In this scenario, a process of inter-regional integration is promoted by China and accepted by both Russia and the EU. The Eurasian mass is progressively integrated within the largest economic area in the world. All other regional aggregations suffer a strong pull effect. The US and the American continent at large goes adrift in geopolitical solitude, generating inward-looking isolationist stances. World Order Three: Enlarged West vs. China. In this scenario, the West remains predominant, China is more and more isolated, and Russia is pulled back towards Europe and the larger transatlantic community. In the last part of the paper, the implications of the three scenarios drawn concern for East Asia.