This article develops and tests a model that explains election outcomes on the basis of party strategy. It employs a new comparative dataset linking representative mass surveys from six European countries with Twitter analysis of campaign activity. The expectation is that parties whose issue agendas exploit electoral opportunities while avoiding risks will be rewarded at the polls. These risks and opportunities are modelled using issue yield, a general framework summarising public support, electoral alignments, and party credibility. Empirically, the article traces a three-step process: (1) the configuration of electoral risks and opportunities (which is captured through public opinion surveys) guides party communication (measured with Twitter data), and to the degree that (2) parties design their campaigns strategically (identified through issue yield), this in turn (3) improves their electoral performance (measured using official statistics). The analysis explains some of the most salient election outcomes of recent years.

Issue yield, campaign communication, and electoral performance: a six-country comparative analysis / De Sio, Lorenzo; Weber, Till. - In: WEST EUROPEAN POLITICS. - ISSN 0140-2382. - 43:3(2020), pp. 720-745. [10.1080/01402382.2019.1655968]

Issue yield, campaign communication, and electoral performance: a six-country comparative analysis

De Sio, Lorenzo;
2020

Abstract

This article develops and tests a model that explains election outcomes on the basis of party strategy. It employs a new comparative dataset linking representative mass surveys from six European countries with Twitter analysis of campaign activity. The expectation is that parties whose issue agendas exploit electoral opportunities while avoiding risks will be rewarded at the polls. These risks and opportunities are modelled using issue yield, a general framework summarising public support, electoral alignments, and party credibility. Empirically, the article traces a three-step process: (1) the configuration of electoral risks and opportunities (which is captured through public opinion surveys) guides party communication (measured with Twitter data), and to the degree that (2) parties design their campaigns strategically (identified through issue yield), this in turn (3) improves their electoral performance (measured using official statistics). The analysis explains some of the most salient election outcomes of recent years.
Party competition, issue politics, Twitter, party communication, riding-the-wave
Issue yield, campaign communication, and electoral performance: a six-country comparative analysis / De Sio, Lorenzo; Weber, Till. - In: WEST EUROPEAN POLITICS. - ISSN 0140-2382. - 43:3(2020), pp. 720-745. [10.1080/01402382.2019.1655968]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11385/189576
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